El-Erian: las 10 consecuencias del ‘no’ en el referéndum de Grecia

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Publicado en Bolsamanía.

Los griegos finalmente optaron por seguir las recomendaciones de su Gobierno y votaron mayoritariamente por el ‘NO’ a las propuestas de los acreedores a cambio de un programa de rescate en el referéndum.

Mohamed A. El-Erian, responsable de asesoría económica de Allianz, ha recopilado 10 consecuencias de la victoria del ‘NO’ en el referéndum griego en un artículo en Bloomberg:

1. Ola de ventas

La negativa a aceptar las propuestas dará lugar a una ola de ventas de acciones a nivel global. Además, habrá presiones en los precios de los bonos emitidos por Grecia y por las países periféricos. Lo mismo sufrirá la renta fija soberana de las economías emergentes.

2. Acuerdo difícil

El-Erian explica que después de que Tsipras sorprendiera con el referéndum a los líderes de la zona euro, ahora la canciller alemana, Angela Merkel, el presidente francés, François Hollande, y el resto de políticos europeos, buscan retomar la iniciativa en las negociaciones. Las reuniones se van a suceder esta semana pero es difícil que haya acuerdo teniendo en cuenta la desconfianza y acusaciones previas entre ambas partes que se han producido en las últimas semanas.

3. Poco tiempo

Además de los desafíos anteriores, Grecia y Bruselas tendrán que trabajar a contrarreloj. Las condiciones horribles que viven los griegos en la actualidad no van a mejorar. Pueden ser mucho peores si el programa de liquidez (ELA por sus siglas en inglés) del Banco Central Europeo (BCE) acaba.

4. Escasez de bienes

A medida que siga el corralito, Grecia puede vivir una escasez de bienes básicos como alimentos o combustible. Los controles de capitales y pagos podrían intensificarse, y la economía va a dar un paso más grande en su contracción que ahondará en el desempleo y en la pobreza. Mientras, el Gobierno tendrá que luchar por cumplir con los jubilados y los funcionarios.

5. Presión para emitir pagarés

Ante lo anterior, el Gobierno estará cada vez más presionado para emitir pagarés y mantener en funcionamiento la economía. Si lo hace, los pagarés serán como una moneda paralela al euro, y tendrían un descuento respecto a la moneda única.

6. Efectos secundarios

Fuera de Grecia, se trabajará para que la crisis helena impacte lo menos posible. El BCE probablemente lanzará nuevas medidas para contener el contagio regional, como la ampliación del actual programa de compra de activos. Esto debilitaría al euro. Además, funcionarios europeos y del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) se preparan para una serie de impagos desde Grecia.

7. Plan B

Todas las partes involucradas en las negociaciones o que se puedan ver dañadas por la ausencia de acuerdo trabajan en un Plan B. La transición hacia un escenario sin acuerdo, argumenta El-Erian, será mucho más traumática para Grecia que para Europa.

8. Instrumentos para evitar el contagio

Europa cuenta con instrumentos e instituciones para limitar el contagio y mantener la integridad de la zona euro, explica El-Erian. Pero necesita de la acción del BCE con medidas adoptadas como el Mecanismo de Estabilidad Europea o el Banco Europeo de Inversiones.

9. Miembro de la zona euro

Pase lo que pase, las dudas perseguirán a Grecia, aún en el mejor de los escenarios con un acuerdo y solución duradera a esta crisis. Es dudoso, recuerda el experto, que Grecia restaure su condición de miembro de pleno derecho de la zona euro. Además, sin una gestión hábil de la crisis está en alto riesgo de convertirse en un estado fallido.

10. Explosión de culpa

Europa debe sacar lecciones de esta crisis. Pero habrá una explosión de culpas que puede resultar en una actividad improductiva que retrase este proceso, avisa el responsable de asesoría económica de Allianz. Las promesas incumplidas de los gobiernos griegos, la terquedad política y un mal análisis de la situación, contribuyen a que Grecia pueda dejar de ser un miembro activo de la familia del euro.

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