¿Por qué se compara el acuerdo con Grecia y el Tratado de Versalles?

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Publicado en Verne (El País). Por Ana Marcos

Tras 17 horas de cumbre, el presidente del Consejo Europeo, Donald Tusk, y el presidente de la Comisión Europea, Jean-Claude Juncker, han anunciado al filo de las nueve de la mañana de este lunes un acuerdo con Grecia por unanimidad sobre el tercer rescate. Momentos después, los periodistas preguntaban a Angela Markel si los términos acordados se parecían en algo al Tratado de Versalles, que acordó las condiciones del armisticio tras la Primera Guerra Mundial. “No me gustan las comparaciones históricas”, ha contestado la canciller alemana. Demasiado pronto para zanjar el símil, los medios de comunicación han recogido el guante y a los artículos de opinión les han sucedido los tuiteros.

El texto acordado es implacable con Grecia: comienza constatando “la necesidad crucial de reconstruir la confianza con las autoridades griegas” como requisito para cualquier rescate e impone durísimas condiciones para lograrlo. Entre ellas, una consulta previa con las instituciones europeas para cualquier ley que quiera aprobar Atenas “en áreas relevantes”. Europa parece no fiarse y lo deja claro en las siete páginas del compromiso. Una de las claves del acuerdo -y de las más difíciles para digerir por parte de Grecia- es el fondo de privatizaciones, que ascenderá a 50.000 millones y ha sido el motivo del retraso. Durante el largo proceso, Berlín llegó a presionar con una salida de Grecia del euro si no había pacto. Y finalmente Atenas ha aceptado.

Estos tira y afloja son los que el director del Financial Times, entre otros, ha considerado propios de una paz cartaginesa. La expresión tiene su origen en las guerras púnicas de Roma contra Cartago, y los brutales términos de rendición que el imperio obligó a aceptar a los rebeldes cartagineses. “Alemania ha querido aplicar la misma medicina a Grecia con la intención de provocar así su salida traumática de la eurozona y convertirla en ejemplo para los demás países europeos a lo largo de la próxima generación”, se plantea Íñigo Sáenz de Ugarte en eldiario.es best generic viagra site

John Maynard Keynes sentenció que el Tratado de Versalles de 1919, firmado entre Alemania y los Países Aliados, era como una paz cartaginesa. El periódicoLa Vanguardia  es uno de los que ha recuperado esta otra comparación del economista para explicar qué está sucediendo en la Unión Europea. “Aunque las circunstancias de los dos momentos históricos no son asimilables, la posguerra de la Gran Guerra y la posburbuja de la década loca del siglo XXI también pueden verse con ópticas comunes”, se recoge en las páginas del diario. Keynes, recuerdan, propuso sin éxito una práctica condonación de las deudas entre los países aliados que ganaron la guerra, y mecanismos de emisión de deudas que aliviaran la situación de la vencida Alemania, que en la práctica cubrían los costes de las reparaciones de guerra.

“Se trataba de una situación de guerra y no una crisis de deuda per se, hubo cesiones territoriales y ocupación, se venía de un marco de nacionalismo y no de integración. Más aún: Keynes abogaba entonces por una economía europea integrada, y la crisis griega es precisamente producto de esa integración y de la forma deficiente y a trompicones en que se ha construido la unión monetaria”, plantea Jorge San Miguel, politólogo e historiador, además de coordinador del colectivo Politikon.

“A lo largo de la historia ha habido infinidad de crisis de deuda, y todas presentan algunos puntos comunes que a su vez se aplican en Grecia”, dice y recuerda las crisis latinoamericanas de los años ochenta en las que el FMI también impuso medidas de austeridad con reformas liberales que fueron muy polémicas. “Otra cosa que mucha gente no sabe es que en el bloque soviético hubo también enormes problemas de deuda cuando la URSS cortó los subsidios a sus satélites y estos tuvieron que ir a financiarse en mercados occidentales. Polonia tuvo un default en el 81 y Yugoslavia en el 83. La propia URSS cayó cuando bajó el petróleo y se quedó sin dinero, después de varios préstamos de EE UU en los ochenta”.

Ignacio Torreblanca, profesor de Ciencia Política en la UNED y director de la oficina en Madrid del European Council on Foreign Relations, se muestra tajante respecto a este tipo de comparaciones: “Soy totalmente contrario al uso que las redes sociales y los medios de comunicación están haciendo de esta y otras metáforas bélicas referidas a la UE. Me parece que refleja las pasiones que se han generado”.

El experto amplía el foco y también rechaza los comentarios que llegan a equiparar esta situación con el Golpe de Estado a Salvador Allende en Chile. El hashtag #Thisisacoup (#Estoesungolpe) ha sido uno de los más usados para conversar sobre la situación griega en las redes sociales. La etiqueta comenzó a crecer cuando el economista Paul Krugman alabó la comparación en su blog enThe New York Times. El Nobel, según explica el diario británico The Guardian, se hizo eco de un tuit lanzado por un profesor italiano el pasado domingo en el que se usaba el hashtag por primera vez. El mensaje fue recogido por el movimiento indignado en Barcelona y Pablo Iglesias, líder de Podemos, no tardó en incluirlo en sus críticas. “Son acontecimientos de un orden material y moral distinto. Evitar las simplificaciones debería ser obligatorio, pero la tentación es muy grande”, cree Torreblanca.

“Este tipo de comparaciones suelen ser más bien un mecanismo para encajar una realidad caótica y difícil de interpretar en categorías previas para las que ya tenemos reacciones y narrativas hechas (por ejemplo, a partir de si somos “de derechas” o “de izquierdas”)”, explica San Miguel. “De alguna forma nos tranquiliza la idea de que la historia se repita y todo haya sucedido ya antes, en lugar de que la historia sea un proceso sin rumbo”.

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