Claves de las elecciones en Reino Unido: adiós definitivo al bipartidismo y… ¿a Europa?

Parliament_at_Sunset

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Lo advierte Owen Jones, joven gurú de la nueva izquierda británica, en un inflamado vídeo para movilizar a los votantes: «Estas no son unas elecciones normales». Reino Unido, en efecto, afronta este jueves las elecciones parlamentarias más ajustadas en décadas. Los comicios más europeos, por disputados, pero también los que –así lo  vaticinan los sondeos– van a suponer la normalización de las coaliciones que darán la puntilla al histórico bipartidismo. Las elecciones supondrán la normalización de las coaliciones y la puntilla al bipartidismo.

Reino Unido vota, cinco años después de las elecciones de la ‘gran recesión’ que auparon al conservador David Cameron al poder, con un ojo puesto en la economía –el déficit ha sido el gran tema y el fantasma de la austeridad aún no se ha marchado– y otro en las relaciones con el Viejo Continente. En clave interna, además, la pujanza del separatismo escocés influye en que la llamada a las urnas imponga una dosis extra de sentimiento nacional.

¿Quién ocupará el 10 de Downing Street, David Cameron o Ed Miliband? ¿Qué porcentaje de votos lograrán los euroescépticos del UKIP? ¿Conseguirán realmente los pequeños partidos condenar a la irrelevancia a los liberal-demócratas de Nick Clegg? Las respuestas a estas preguntas dependerán de las decisiones de 46 millones de votantes. Estas son las claves para seguir e interpretar el 7-M.

¿Un ‘hung parliament’ por segunda vez consecutiva?

El sistema electoral británico es complejo, pero estable. Su procedimiento mayoritario uninominal –solo hay un diputado ganador por circunscripción– favorece a los partidos mayoritarios y el llamado ‘voto útil’ en contra de las minorías. Esto suele desembocar, a nivel nacional, en mayorías holgadas que permiten la alternancia entre partidos (conservador y laborista). Pero las elecciones de 2010 rompieron esta tendencia, y parece que las de 2015 la van a hacer estallar del todo. Las encuestas muestras una diferencia mínima entre los dos grandes partidos con opciones reales de ganar Las encuestas no solo muestran una diferencia casi inapreciable en porcentaje de voto entre Cameron y Miliband. Lo jugoso viene detrás. Según el último sondeo de la cadena pública BBC, los conservadores obtendrían un 34% de votos, los laboristas un 33%, el UKIP un 14%, los liberal-demócratas un 8% y los verdes un 6%. De confirmarse, estos resultados abocarían a un escenario de pactos parlamentarios (conocidos en la jerga inglesa como ‘hung parliament’, pues ningún partido por sí solo estaría en disposición de gobernar y sacar adelante leyes) como ocurrió en la pasada legislatura.

«Las encuestas hechas por teléfono suelen favorecer a los conservadores, las realizadas por Internet, a los laboristas», escribe el politólogo José Fernández-Albertos en una columna en el blog Piedras de papel, «pero nadie sabe con certeza cuál se acercará más al resultado final». Ni los propios británicos, que acostumbran a apostar por casi todo en sus betting shops, lo tienen claro todavía.

La economía sigue reinando en los programas

Cameron, candidato del Partido Conservador a la reelección, no se ha salido del guion previsto en la campaña. Su baza para volver a gobernar es esgrimir los datos económicos. Los de un país que ha vuelto a crecer –y más que la media de sus socios europeos– gracias a la receta de la austeridad, pero sembrando el camino de bajos salarios, recortes de gasto público y desprotección social. En dos palabras, crecimiento y desigualdad. La econonía británica ha mejorado, pero la desigualdad social ha crecido.

Frente a este panorama de recuperación a medias, los laboristas de Ed Milliband proponen, como alternativa, un crecimiento económico y un rigor fiscal que no sean adversarios de la igualdad. Insuflar varios millones de libras en el sector público y  elevar el salario mínimo son dos de sus propuestas para reducir la brecha social generada por la desigual salida de la crisis.

Con todo, el déficit –que pese a la reducción a la mitad en una legislatura es todavía abultadísimo– se ha convertido en el caballo de batalla de los dos partidos con aspiraciones de gobernar. Frente a la opción radical de Cameron de acabar con él y lograr superávit antes de 2020, los laboristas de Miliband prometen equilibrar las cuentas de forma más escalonada. El todavía primer ministro ha pedido en campaña «una oportunidad más» para terminar lo empezado, pero la economía ha vuelto a perder fuelle en los inicios de 2015, lo que podría perjudicar sus aspiraciones.

Europa, ni contigo ni sin ti

Los británicos pierden su flema al hablar de Europa, y en estas elecciones el ‘dilema europeo’ ha escalado de nuevo en la lista de preocupaciones. Los conservadores prometen un referéndum en 2017 para decidir si Gran Bretaña sigue o no perteneciendo a la UE. El partido de Cameron, dividido entre proeuropeístas y euroescépticos, no quiere perder votos por el lado de la derecha y ha endurecido su discurso hostil hacia a Europa. Reino Unido podría amanecer con el Parlamento más eurófobo de su historia.

Mientras, los laboristas –tradicionalmente eurófilos– siguen ondeando la bandera azul con las estrellas en un clima de rechazo a las políticas comunitarias (consideradas un lastre por una parte de la población). Miliband ha acusado repetidamente a Cameron de «aislar» a Reino Unido de Europa con una política de confrontación con Alemania y Francia que no redunda en beneficio de nadie, ni siquiera de los británicos.

Pero en estas elecciones, al contrario que en las anteriores, hay un partido que sí pide abiertamente la salida de la UE. El UKIP, catalogado como antiinmigración, antiUE y de matriz populista, podría ser la tercera fuerza en el Parlamento. En 2010 obtuvo el 2% de los votos, pero ahora las encuestas le otorgan un 14%. De confirmarse estos pronósticos, Reino Unido amanecería con el Parlamento más eurófobo de su historia, lo que condicionaría la actuación hacia Bruselas del futuro primer ministro.

La amenaza del nacionalismo escocés

La revelación de estas elecciones es una mujer. Nicola Sturgeon, líder del partido nacionalista escocés (SNP), se ha convertido en el mirlo blanco de estos comicios. De confirmarse los sondeos, el mismo partido que perdió el referéndum independentista hace menos de un año, tendría la mano de la gobernabilidad en Westminster. El SNP escocés podría llegar a tener la llave de la gobernabilidad en Westminster.

Los 59 escaños que se le pronostican (que son todos los destinados a Escocia dentro de la Unión) convertirían a la formación de Sturgon –sucesora del histórico Alex Salmond– en la tercera fuerza. Y abrirían, de nuevo, el melón de la independencia escocesa. «El triunfo casi seguro del Partido Nacional Escocés en Escocia tendrá consecuencias inmensas para todos», reflexiona el profesor Timothy Garton Ash en un artículo escrito en clave europea.

Un auténtico terremoto político en las islas que, dado el carácter netamente progresista (aumento del salario mínimo, subida de impuestos para las rentas altas, viviendas asequibles para los sectores empobrecidos y más gasto público) de las políticas lanzadas por Sturgeon, haría posible una alianza de gobierno con los de Miliband, un arma de doble filo para los laboristas.

Los principales candidatos

Un candidato que se presenta a la reelección; otro sobre el que sus propios potenciales votantes tienes dudas; uno más que es considerado un populista peligroso; otro al que todos auguran un batacazo monumental y una estrella emergente. Estos son los líderes de los principales partidos que se presentan a las elecciones.

David Cameron (48 años, Partido Conservador) El enemigo a batir. Tras cinco años en el poder, este hijo de la clase alta británica educado en Eton ha devuelto al Partido Conservador al poder, y con buenas opciones para reeditarlo. Estas opciones pasan, sobre todo, por defender el legado de estos cinco años de Gobierno, en los que según ellos, el país ha dejado atrás la crisis, con un sector financiero optimista y tasas de crecimiento superiores a los del resto de potencias económicas. Cameron, europeísta realista, aunque no se ha prodigado demasiado en debates, goza de una personalidad carismática, si bien la suerte –al menos la caprichosa suerte fotográfica– no le ha acompañado en esta campaña. Varios traspiés, alguno intencionadamente mal explicado, lo ejemplifican.

Ed Miliband (45 años, Partido Laborista) Es el líder del Partido Laborista desde que venciera, allá por 2010, a su hermano David, el ‘a priori’ favorito entre los cuadros del partido. Ed ha tenido que luchar contra una opinión pública desfavorable desde casi el principio (los conservadores lanzaron las campanas al vuelo tras enterarse de su designación, pues a quien realmente temían era al otro Miliband). Profundamente europeísta, hijo de un ya fallecido intelectual marxista muy respetado en Reino Unido, Miliband trata de devolver a los laboristas a la senda de izquierdas perdida en los años de Blair y la Tercera Vía. Por lo pronto, parece que Miliband es un hueso duro de roer, y las encuestas le sitúan a la par de su gran rival, y opuesto en casi todo, David Cameron.

Nigel Farage (51 años, UKIP) Un ‘gentleman de la incorreción política’. Un líder popular –o populista–, siempre con una pinta de cerveza en la mano y con el verbo afilado, sobre todo cuando se dirige a los burócratas de Bruselas (se atrevió a llamar «trapo sucio» a Van Rompuy y fue multado por ello). De familia acomodada, militó en las filas del Partido Conservador hasta mediados de los años noventa. Desde entonces, defiende las políticas antieuropeas y duras contra la inmigración en el UKIP. Dice que si en estas elecciones no logra el escaño por el que puja, el de South Thanet, en posesión actualmente de los conservadores, dejaría el partido. Farage, contrario a las políticas de Bruselas, llevó al UKIP a sus mejores resultados en las pasadas elecciones europeas.

Nicola Sturgeon (44 años, Partido Nacionalista Escocés) La estrella mediática de estas elecciones. Sucesora del histórico Alex Salmond, defenestrado tras la derrota del ‘sí’ a la independencia escocesa. Sturgeon, actual primera ministra de Escocia, no es nueva en política, pero su nombramiento al frente del SNP ha dado nuevos bríos al partido. Tras sus acertadas intervenciones en los debates preelectorales, algunos medios británicos hablan ya de ‘Sturgeonmania’ por el aire fresco que ha traido a la política de todo el país. La líder independentista ya ha dicho que su intención es encabezar una «fuerza de choque» con ministros y diputados escoceses para forzar una acuerdo anti Cameron con los laboristas.

Nick Clegg (48 años, Liberal-demócratas) Fue la estrella de las elecciones de 2010. Pero cinco años después, este políglota casado con una española (hija de un senador del PP), europeísta y liberal, está al borde del fracaso. Han sido cinco años en la coalición de Gobierno, de la mano del conservador Cameron, apoyándole incluso en asuntos –como la pugna con la UE– opuestos al ideario tradicional de los liberal-demócratas. Un apoyo que ha desgastado a la formación hasta el punto de que las encuestas le auguran unos resultados irrisorios. Al contrario que muchos de sus rivales, Clegg estudió en un colegio público y por sus dotes telegénicas ha sido comparado con Obama. Para contener la sangría de votos ha prometido alargar seis semanas el permiso de paternidad y un proyecto de ley que evitaría la cárcel para los que lleven drogas.

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