Sánchez y la Teoría de Juegos

pedro sánchez DI LOLLI

Imagen: Di Lolli Publicado por El País La cost of levaquin without insurance Teoría de Juegos es una aplicación matemática utilizada en economía y, fundamentalmente, en la práctica de la negociación. iphone 7 cases light up Consiste en tomar las decisiones pensando en las que van a tomar los demás y teniendo en cuenta el impacto que van a tener en los otros cuando se adopta cada una de las decisiones y los posibles movimientos que les siguen. En las negociaciones se alcanza el llamado Equilibrio de Nash cuando todas las partes llegan al convencimiento de que cualquier paso que dé cualquiera empeora su posición. Se culmina la negociación cuando se llega a ese punto, siempre teniendo en cuenta la repercusión en todos los demás de cualquier movimiento de una parte. Con esa Teoría de Juegos es posible entender la arriesgada negociación a varias bandas en las que se encuentra Pedro Sánchez, secretario general del PSOE, de cara a la investidura. Su punto de partida es que su objetivo, casi su sueño, es lograr ser presidente del Gobierno teniendo solo el voto en contra del PP y a partir de ahí se trata de encajar las diferentes piezas, en forma de votos a favor y abstenciones, hasta completar todas las caras con su color, como el Cubo de Rubik. Lo primero fue descartar al PP de todas las combinaciones posibles. Sirven los populares como argumento para no incluir en las negociaciones reformas constitucionales que podrían frenar con su mayoría absoluta en el Senado. Hasta ahora los movimientos han consistido en poner las piezas sobre la mesa, a la espera de que encajen todas, incluso con varias combinaciones. Por ejemplo, acuerdo con Ciudadanos con abstención de Podemos o viceversa. Para eso hay que lograr que cada una de esas piezas de la negociación modifique su posición y acepte alguna forma de acuerdo. Que lleguen al Equilibrio de Nash de pensar que cualquier cambio es a peor y tener en cuenta el efecto en cada uno de las decisiones de los demás. Y sobre todo que teman unas nuevas elecciones y aparecer como culpable. Por ejemplo y como hipótesis, que Podemos llegue a la conclusión de que absteniéndose ante un pacto de PSOE y Ciudadanos consigue tener libre el camino de la oposición en la izquierda, evita votar en el mismo sentido que el PP, identifica al PSOE con la derecha (Ciudadanos) y no es responsable de unas inciertas nuevas elecciones con una imagen institucional. El marco necesario creado por el PSOE es el de la imagen de Podemos votando en el mismo sentido que el PP contra Sánchez. (Añado la aportación que me hace el economista José Carlos Díez sobre la Teoría de Juegos, aplicada a esta negociación: “El Equilibrio de Nash es cuando todos en el juego cooperando sacan mejor resultado que no cooperando. Pero si uno coopera y los otros no, los que no cooperan ganan los que no han cooperado. Por eso hay incentivos a no cooperar y el resultado son nuevas elecciones). tottenham hotspur iphone 6 case Para esa combinación serían precisas concesiones del PSOE en política social o económica. Y de los demás sobre el referéndum de Cataluña o la más complicada sobre la formación de un Gobierno de coalición. En el caso de Ciudadanos, el PSOE pretende darle el mérito de las medidas de regeneración, la imagen de partido de Estado y la interlocución. Teniendo en cuenta, además, que todos los partidos y especialmente Ciudadanos prevén que si el PP pasa a la oposición vivirá una etapa muy tormentosa, con futuro inmediato incierto y debilitado, lo que repercute también en todas las piezas que deben encajar. La fórmula encajaría con los límites marcados por los barones socialistas en el Comité Federal. 3d iphone 7 case Otra combinación posible que está sobre la mesa es la de acuerdo PSOE-Podemos con abstención de Ciudadanos, también con ventajas e inconvenientes para cada uno. iphone 8 case silicone case Habrá acuerdo si se alcanza el punto en el que, por ejemplo, llegaran al convencimiento de que pueden ser presentados como culpables de que haya elecciones repetidas. naruto phone case iphone 7 En caso contrario, si alguno de ellos cree que con nuevas elecciones mejora su posición no habrá acuerdo, ni investidura y se abrirán las urnas el 26 de junio. La tesis del equipo de Sánchez es que el hecho de que los resultados obliguen a acuerdos entre al menos tres partidos hace necesario negociar de esta forma arriesgada, a dos bandas para buscar esos equilibrios. Y de paso reducir el “precio” al tener varias alternativas abiertas, porque cada una de las piezas del puzle puede temer que otra está en mejor situación para pactar. iphone 6 case minnie mouse ears Quedan al margen de esa negociación, pero como agentes fundamentales los partidos nacionalistas o independentistas. En su caso, si llegan a la conclusión de que absteniéndose mejora su posición lo harán, aunque sea en el último momento. Y pueden considerar que empeora su posición si en otra vuelta o tras unas elecciones repetidas puede gobernar el PP. El éxito para Sánchez sería lograr entonces su sueño de investidura con el voto en contra únicamente de los diputados del PP. Por el momento ya ha conseguido que Podemos y Ciudadanos estén en la mesa de negociación y que Izquierda Unida y Compromís, nada sospechosos de ser de derechas, estén muy cerca, dando coartada de voluntad de pacto de izquierdas a la complicada ecuación.

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